NATO Commander: Russia Losing ‘Thousands’ for Every Mile Gained
According to Adm. Dragone, the Russian military’s “grinding advance” is coming at a price that would be unsustainable for most modern nations. Despite Moscow’s claims of capturing settlements across the 750-mile frontline, the human cost is unprecedented.
The Attrition Crisis
- Casualty Rates: In late 2025, Russia sustained approximately 35,000 casualties in a single two-month window.
- Territorial Cost: “For one kilometer, they are losing thousands of troops,” Dragone stated. He characterized the current situation as an “attrition war” that is not yielding significant strategic results.
- The Donbas Outlook: NATO predicts that at the current pace, Russia will be unable to conquer the entire Donbas region by the end of 2026.
The 3-to-5 Year Recovery Window
Perhaps most concerning for Western allies is Russia’s resilience. Adm. Dragone warned that if a peace deal were reached today, Russia could recover its pre-war military capabilities within three to five years.
“Probably they will keep the war economy even after the war ends, just to rebuild this as soon as possible,” Dragone noted, adding that Moscow may aim for a force 150% larger than its pre-invasion size to counter NATO.
A Hybrid War on NATO’s Doorstep
The Admiral also addressed the “unfair confrontation” of hybrid warfare. Moscow has been accused of sabotage, assassination plots, and surveillance operations within NATO borders.
- Asymmetric Tactics: Russia is testing NATO’s reaction times through airspace violations and cyber operations.
- Democratic Restraints: Dragone acknowledged that NATO operates under moral and legal restraints that do not bind the Kremlin. “This is what we could call a handicap situation, but that’s something that we want to be in place,” he said, affirming NATO’s defensive mindset.
Economic Shift: The Permanent War Footing
Russia has shifted over 40% of its national budget toward the war effort. This transition to a “war economy” has allowed them to reconstitute and recruit despite massive losses in 2024 and 2025.